What Does Error Code 12031 Mean?
Based on Intuit, QuickBooks Error 12031 can occur when updating QuickBooks or updating a QuickBooks payroll service. The error is due to:

a network timeout that is preventing QuickBooks from accessing the server
net connection problems
internet security or firewall settings that are blocking the connection
the reality that Internet Explorer is almost certainly not the default browser
incorrect SSL settings
Troubleshooting this error varies according to the problem in which the error occurred.

Situation 1 – The Error Occurred Updating QuickBooks Itself

Check your Internet Connection Setup in QuickBooks from the Help->Internet Connection Setup menu selection. Verify that your particular connection is defined to use your computer’s net connection settings, as shown below.

Click Next.

Click Done and try to perform the update again.

To find out more troubleshooting this error when updating QuickBooks itself, consult this Intuit knowledge base article.

Situation 2 – The Error Occurred Updating a QuickBooks Payroll Service

Check your Internet Connection Setup in QuickBooks from the Help->Internet Connection Setup menu selection. Verify that the connection is set to make use of your computer’s net connection (screen shot shown above) and click Next. Click the Advanced Connection Settings… button to produce the net Properties window. From the Advanced tab, verify that Use SSL 2.0 and make use of SSL 3.0 are checked. Click Apply after which Ok. Keep in mind that this change will affect your link with the online world using Internet Explorer.

Close and re-start QuickBooks; attempt to update the QuickBooks payroll service. For lots more information troubleshooting SSL settings, consult this Intuit knowledge base article.

When your Internet Properties were set correctly, the error could be due to security or firewall software blocking usage of certain programs. Consult this Intuit knowledge base article to troubleshoot access for QuickBooks programs.