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Posted by umair on July 13, 2024 at 6:59am 0 Comments 0 Likes
Elliot Wave is a way of defining the market action in a five wave formation. A very simple explanation. It basically says mass psychology is predictable in a liquid market by a five wave cycle. An accumulation wave. A correction. A much bigger wave. A correction again. Then the final "speculative" wave. Where the public jumps in. This is the final wave and the the next correction is not correction as such but the end of the market cycle.
A picture is worth a thousand words. See the chart of the NASDAQ during the great "bear" of 2001 to 2003
So, looking at the above chart Elliot Wave does seem to hold some credibility. It's is clear the great market crash of 2001 to 2003 did move in an almost perfectly formed five wave cycle. Three waves down. Leg three being the biggest and leg five being the final one. All seems well.
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This is what I want to say about Elliot Wave. In a "nutshell" it does seem to have some substance. Look at some monthly bar charts of a liquid market (where there is massive public participation) and you will be able to see some great five wave formations. Great. That's about all the interest I have in Elliot Wave. There is absolutely nothing you can trade off. It's not quantifiable. Sometimes you will see Elliot Wave formations, most of the time you will not. And then it gets worse.
Ask twenty Elliot Wave enthusiasts what they see in the same chart and I'll guarantee you will get twenty different answers. How can you trade of something so subjective? Why should a market move up in three waves? where's the common sense about this method? I do not see it.
And when an E.W. formation goes wrong do they say "oh sorry I am wrong. cut your losses and get out"? No. They they bring in extra rules about a correction wave within the formation and pile more and more B*S already onto a sea of B*S and non-sense.
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