Investors eager for earnings amid growth concerns

Investors are looking to U.S. companies’ upcoming quarterly results joker gaming and forecasts about the recovery in the second half of 2021 as some worry that the recent economic surge is already waning.

U.S. Treasuries rallied sharply this week on fears that economic growth may slow in the second half, pushing yields to levels not seen since February. On the stock market, there was a selloff in financials, energy and other so-called value shares tied to the recovery.

A massive jump in second quarter earnings is expected to mark a peak for U.S. earnings growth and the recovery from last year’s pandemic-induced profit collapse. S&P 500 earnings are estimated to have surged 65.8% from a year earlier, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

That’s on track to be the biggest percentage growth since the fourth quarter of 2009 following the Great Financial Crisis, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

Starting Tuesday, earnings reports are due from JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and other big banks, kicking off the quarterly results season. They could give early clues on the economy and stocks tied to growth.

Most big U.S. banks are expected to report a big rebound in quarterly profits even with trading income falling and revenue stalling on low interest rates and weak demand.

Investors are also eager to assess whether earnings will support Wall Street’s run higher, with the S&P 500 up roughly 16% for the year so far. Many market watchers say the expected surge in earnings this year is a big reason for the market’s strong performance.

Yet this week’s weaker-than-expected report on U.S. jobless claims and the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant added to investor questions about the economic re-opening.

“For this earnings season, what investors will want to see and what we expect is that the earnings trend for the value side is still intact, to give support to (the view) it’s too early to leave this trade. And that starts with the banks next week,” said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services.

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