Lottery predictions; Bah, humbug. That's what some individuals say. Others think that using lottery number analysis to create lottery predictions is perfectly valid. Who's right? Many players are just left sitting on the fence without any clear path to follow. If you don't know where you stand, then, perhaps this informative article will reveal the facts and offer you a clearer picture of who is right.Toto HK

The Controversy Over Making Lottery Predictions

This is actually the argument typically espoused by the lottery prediction skeptics. It goes something similar to this:

Predicting lottery numbers is wasted effort. Why analyze a lottery to create lottery predictions? After all, it's a random game of chance. Lottery number patterns or trends don't exist. Everyone understands that every lottery number is equally likely hitting and, ultimately, most of the numbers will hit exactly the same amount of times.

The Best Defense Is Logic and Reason

In the beginning, the arguments appear solid and predicated on an audio mathematical foundation. But, you're about to discover that the mathematics used to support their position is misunderstood and misapplied. I believe Alexander Pope said it best in 'An Essay on Criticism' in 1709: "Only a little learning is a dangerous thing; drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring: there shallow draughts intoxicate the mind, and drinking largely sobers us again." Put simply, only a little knowledge isn't worth much originating from a person who includes a little.

First, let's address the misunderstanding. In the mathematical field of probability, there's a theorem called the Law of Large Numbers. It really states that, as the amount of trials increase, the results will approach the expected mean or average value. When it comes to lottery, which means eventually all lottery numbers will hit exactly the same amount of times. By the way, I totally agree.

The very first misunderstanding arises from what, 'as the amount of samples or trials increase' ;.Increase from what? Is 50 drawings enough? 100? 1,000? 50,000? The name itself, 'Law of Large Numbers', should offer you a clue. The second misunderstanding centers around the utilization of the term 'approach' ;.When we are likely to 'approach the expected mean', how close do we need to get before we are satisfied?

Second, let's discuss the misapplication. Misunderstanding the theorem results in its misapplication. I'll show you what I mean by asking the questions that the skeptics forget to ask. Exactly how many drawings will it take before the results will approach the expected mean? And, what's the expected mean?

To show the application form of Law of Large Numbers, a two-sided coin is flipped numerous times and the results, either Heads or Tails, are recorded. The intent is to prove that, in a reasonable game, the amount of Heads and Tails, for several intents and purposes, is going to be equal. It typically needs a few thousand flips before the amount of Heads and Tails are within a fraction of 1% of each other.